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Research Methodology – Catch the Window of Opportunity

The product life cycles of photonic and electronic products are short and will continue to shrink over time. To ensure operations are successful, it is vital to target to the right products for development and introduce them at the correct time. Decisions on major R&D and facility investments must be made your competitors' products seize the market, and it needs to happen quickly. ElectroniCast's fast turnaround product analysis and forecasts help you redirect your technology focus and keep you ahead of the competition. To see how we have done this in the past all over the world, view our news press releases.

Forecast Methodology

In analyzing and forecasting a product or service market, we combine several techniques. Product consumption and production history is determined by:

• Interviews of the Leading Product or Service Users & Producers ("Dual Track" Primary Research)
• Secondary Research (Reviews of Published Information Including Industry Data, Technical Papers, Financial Reports)

This research provides a consensus of the past history of the product or service. It also determines the value and price and application trends, leading producers and their market shares. The forecast, working from this historical data is based on interviews from:

• Users - Design Engineers Who Decide Which Product to Specify
• Suppliers - Manufacturers, Distributors, & Transporters
• Researchers - Industrial, Government, & University
• Government Agencies

Businessmen Discussing a Project

Group Discussion

Short-Range & Long-Range Forecasting

Forecasting for the first one to two years is based mainly on a consensus of supplier and user viewpoints. If adequate historical data is available, projections also may contribute to the short-range forecast. However, these methods are not suitable for long-range forecasts, especially for advanced-technology products.

The long-range forecast is based upon a certain sequence. The advancement of technology of the product, competing products, and the end applications are forecast based on interviews of researchers and other experts in the product field. The economic significance of the advanced technology products is analyzed from the following perspectives:

• Real Value to User Determined by User Interviews
• Displacement of Competing Products
• Creation of New Markets
• The Production of the End-Use Equipment's or Systems Is Forecasted
• Production Costs (Minimum Pricing) of the Product at Various Quantity Levels Are Analyzed

The Demand Forecast

This is derived by bottom-up, application-by-application examination. The analysis of cost-effectiveness and user perception risk provides us with great insight. We receive valuable information on the rate of penetration of the product into the various end applications at its minimum profitable price.

Input and output analysis applies the penetration predictions to the end-application production forecast to provide a crosscheck of the product consumption projection. This is then adjusted by forecasted imports, exports, and inventory change. R&D use and other non-production markets derive the total production forecast.

Finally, user interviews help predict the production and are segmented into captive (in-house) production versus the available (merchant) market. The data are then computer-processed and the forecasts are available via email delivery for easy viewing.

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